Restarting Production Requires More than Reopening Valves, Likely Taking Weeks Rather than Days Iraq’s claim that it can restore oil production and exports within seven days of a Strait of Hormuz reopening may reassure markets, but the process would not be simple. Iraqi officials, including Deputy Oil Minister Basim Mohammed …
Read More »The long shock: How the Iran war is remaking the global economy
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz marks a rupture in the post-1970s energy order, with consequences that may redefine how the global economy functions The US and Israeli-led war on Iran has initiated a chain reaction that has culminated in the most significant oil supply disruption in modern history. Iran’s retaliatory strikes against …
Read More »The United Arab Emirates Exits OPEC and OPEC+
The Decision Sends a Signal That National Priorities Now Outweigh Collective Discipline The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC and the expanded OPEC+ that brought in nearly a dozen other oil-producing members not included in the original OPEC, effective May 1, 2026, is more than a routine policy shift. …
Read More »Iran war turns India-Saudi oil trade into a strategic partnership
What once looked like diversification for both now feels like necessity. The relationship is no longer just about barrels moving from one port to another; it is increasingly about managing shared risks, building joint infrastructure, and aligning long-term strategies The Iran-Israel war of 2026 has not only disrupted global energy …
Read More »How Will the Gulf Arab Economies Change Post-War?
Recovery Will Not Be Simply a Return to the Old Model, Now That Gulf States Are Diversifying Their Energy and Economies After Israel and the United States attacked the Islamic Republic of Iran on February 28, 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded with missiles and drones targeting oil facilities, …
Read More »Iran sees hundreds of thousands of jobs lost due to war
Shabnam von Hein04/15/2026April 15, 2026After six weeks of war, job losses are growing in Iran. Destroyed industrial facilities have brought production in many sectors to a standstill, hitting Iranian workers particularly hard. More than 93 million people in Iran are living in the shadow of a war that could flare …
Read More »Ghalibaf’s rise signals Iran’s turn towards Bonapartism
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf’s rising influence increasingly reflects a Bonapartist adaptation towards centralised authority exercised by an insider promising order without structural reform The concept of “Ghalibaf and Bonapartism” has emerged as a useful analytical lens for understanding the Islamic Republic’s evolving power structure amid mounting domestic and international …
Read More »When gas becomes a battlefield: Qatar’s LNG disruption marks a new era of energy warfare
QatarEnergy’s force majeure declaration crystallises a broader shift in global energy markets toward fragmentation and securitisation. The disruption has intensified market tightness, driven price volatility, and exposed the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to geopolitical conflict QatarEnergy’s March 24 declaration of force majeure on parts of its long-term LNG contracts marks …
Read More »Potential U.S. Strike Targets Include Natural Gas Power Plants
By Brian Spegele If President Trump follows through on his threat to attack Iranian power assets, the strikes would almost certainly target plants in the country that generate electricity from natural gas. Around 80% of power generation in Iran came from natural gas as of 2023, according to the International …
Read More »What Does Iraq’s Force Majeure Declaration Mean for Energy Markets?
Iraq Has Not Reduced Output Due to Policy Decisions or Quotas—It Has Shut Down Production Because It Cannot Export On March 20, 2026, Iraq’s Oil Ministry declared force majeure on oilfields operated by foreign companies after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz halted tanker traffic and blocked exports. The decision reflected a breakdown in …
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