The UAE’s planned second Fujairah, or West-East, pipeline marks a major shift in Gulf energy security and export strategy. It matters not only because it reduces dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, but because it gives Abu Dhabi more freedom to manage exports, expand production, and strengthen its economic leverage. Announced for …
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Putin’s China visit signals a new Eurasian order
Vladimir Putin’s Beijing visit shows that pressure on Russia has hurt Moscow, but it has not left Russia isolated. Instead, it has pushed the bear closer to the dragon Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing on May 19-20 was not just another round of diplomatic theatre. It was a …
Read More »Iraq’s Delayed Gulf Cooperation Council Power Link Deepens Summer Electricity Risks
Baghdad Struggles with Rising Demand, Limited Domestic Generation, and Heavy Dependence on Iran for Fuel SuppliesIraq has been told that the long-awaited Gulf Cooperation Council electrical interconnection project will not arrive on schedule, leaving Baghdad with one fewer option before the summer heat. The project was due to begin operating …
Read More »Turkey’s Maritime Jurisdiction Bill: Energy, law, and power in the Eastern Mediterranean
Turkey’s reported plan to submit a bill to parliament asserting maritime jurisdiction over disputed areas of the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean marks a serious escalation in one of the region’s most sensitive maritime disputes. The proposed legislation would reportedly formalize Ankara’s claims in contested waters believed to contain existing or potential natural …
Read More »China’s Legal Shield Against U.S. Sanctions on Iranian Oil
On May 2, 2026, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a landmark prohibition order under its 2021 Rules on Counteracting Unjustified Extraterritorial Application of Foreign Legislation and Other Measures, commonly known as China’s Blocking Rules. The order bars the recognition, enforcement, or compliance inside China with U.S. sanctions imposed on five Chinese …
Read More »War, oil, and a Middle Eastern renewable energy transition
One week into the United States-Israel war on Iran in late February, missiles shifted towards each belligerent’s fossil fuel infrastructure. By March, President Donald Trump declared he wanted to “take the oil in Iran.” The war quickly devolved into a battle over energy targets and the control of oil prices Though oil …
Read More »Is Iraq’s Seven-Day Oil Recovery Claim Realistic?
Restarting Production Requires More than Reopening Valves, Likely Taking Weeks Rather than Days Iraq’s claim that it can restore oil production and exports within seven days of a Strait of Hormuz reopening may reassure markets, but the process would not be simple. Iraqi officials, including Deputy Oil Minister Basim Mohammed …
Read More »The long shock: How the Iran war is remaking the global economy
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz marks a rupture in the post-1970s energy order, with consequences that may redefine how the global economy functions The US and Israeli-led war on Iran has initiated a chain reaction that has culminated in the most significant oil supply disruption in modern history. Iran’s retaliatory strikes against …
Read More »Chokepoints and control: Iran war and the new geopolitics of connectivity
The most consequential conflicts are no longer fought over land, but over the networks that bind the world together and over who gets to use them, and on what terms In the aftermath of the Iran war, global power dynamics would shift decisively from territorial control to the management of …
Read More »The United Arab Emirates Exits OPEC and OPEC+
The Decision Sends a Signal That National Priorities Now Outweigh Collective Discipline The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC and the expanded OPEC+ that brought in nearly a dozen other oil-producing members not included in the original OPEC, effective May 1, 2026, is more than a routine policy shift. …
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