Iran is shifting trade toward northern ports and land routes as its southern shipping faces a US blockade. Analysts say the corridors can keep essential goods moving, but cannot replace maritime trade. Can land corridors offset the impact of the maritime blockade on Iran? The US-led maritime blockade targeting Iranian ports …
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The illusion of redundancy: Why oil markets are misreading Gulf supply risk
Oil markets are behaving as if the region’s supply problems will soon resolve themselves. That confidence is becoming increasingly difficult to justify.By mid-September 2026, futures prices had repeatedly eased or paused on the basis of limited diplomatic signals, even as three major vulnerabilities were developing at the same time: Iran’s …
Read More »Can Saudi Arabia Finance Both War and Vision 2030?
The Kingdom Can Withstand the Current Pressure Caused by the Iran War, but Only If It Defines Its Priorities Because of the Iran war, Saudi Arabia has fewer barrels of oil to sell but receives more money for every barrel it does sell. Attacks on energy facilities and the Strait …
Read More »The gamble behind US attacks on Iran’s oil tankers
US attacks on Iranian oil tankers could make it far harder and more expensive for Tehran to keep selling its crude, but the strategy carries a potentially much larger cost: turning the Persian Gulf’s energy infrastructure into an expanding battlefield. The latest US strikes on three Iranian oil tankers mark …
Read More »The Syria Option: Rethinking Middle Eastern Oil Exports Beyond Hormuz
President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Syria as a possible alternative to the Strait of Hormuz has pushed an old energy-security problem back to the center of Middle Eastern strategy. On September 3, Trump reacted positively to a Washington Post report describing Syria’s effort to market itself as an overland corridor from …
Read More »Natural gas, corridors, and security: Why Turkey wants Egypt in the Mecca Pact
The Eastern Mediterranean’s importance is often measured by its gas discoveries, but reserves acquire strategic value only when they can reach consumers. Egypt’s Zohr, Israel’s Tamar and Leviathan, and Cyprus’s Aphrodite, Glaucus and Cronos have given the basin a substantial resource base. Yet Egypt occupies the pivotal position because its Idku …
Read More »Iran’s missing fuel: Can border smuggling explain it all?
Iran’s large-scale fuel losses appear to go beyond the smuggling cited by officials in Tehran, with evidence pointing to organized diversion within the country’s fuel distribution system. Iranian officials repeatedly say around 20 million liters of fuel are smuggled out of the country every day, costing Iran between $4 billion …
Read More »Map Shows How Iran Evades Trump’s Blockade Amid ‘Economic D-Day’ Threat
With President Donald Trump threatening to launch an “economic D-Day” against Iran, one of the Islamic Republic’s most important wartime lifelines is its geography. And while the resumption of a U.S. naval blockade last month has substantially limited Iran’s maritime trade, land routes are becoming an increasingly vital source of commerce. Located at …
Read More »From Transit Corridor to Energy Hub: Türkiye after the Iran-Israel-U.S. War
The 2025-2026 Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict marked a turning point in global energy politics. Direct attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, such as South Pars and the Kharg Island export terminal, along with Iranian threats to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, revealed the weakness of maritime chokepoints. About 20% of the world’s seaborne …
Read More »Is the United Arab Emirates’ Iran Trade Freeze Economic Shock or Strategic Pivot?
Enforcement Will Test Abu Dhabi’s Appetite to Absorb Domestic Costs While Pressuring Tehran On August 19, 2026, the United Arab Emirates announced it had stopped “all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions” with Iran “until further notice.” But the Foreign Ministry did not cite a new statute, cabinet resolution, sanctions list or …
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