With war disrupting Iran’s southern trade routes, Tehran is looking north to the Caspian for alternatives. But the available evidence suggests they cannot replace its crucial oil exports. More cargo moving across the Caspian could help Iran keep supplies coming in. But rising freight totals do not show whether Tehran …
Read More »Beyond shared identity: Military cooperation across the Turkic states
Military cooperation among Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan is growing, but it does not yet amount to a unified four-country alliance. The ties are taking shape through different channels: a formal alliance between Azerbaijan and Türkiye, a separate allied-relations treaty between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, and broader exercises that bring Central …
Read More »Turkiye’s electricity paradox: More capacity than peak demand, but what comes next?
Turkiye has nearly 127 GW of installed generation capacity, while its summer peak demand reached about 60.4 GW in July 2025. At first glance, that looks like a big surplus. But not every power plant is available when demand is highest. Solar output drops in the evening, wind depends on …
Read More »Iran faces postwar winter with a third of gas capacity lost
Iran is racing to restore gas infrastructure before winter after losing about a third of its pre-war production capacity, a reconstruction challenge that could force Tehran into difficult choices between keeping homes warm, power plants running and industry supplied. Iranian officials say attacks have knocked out about 230 million cubic …
Read More »From Caspian gas to Turkish industry: SOCAR’s geopolitical energy strategy
State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has become one of Türkiye’s largest foreign investors and a core pillar of the Baku–Ankara energy partnership. Since acquiring Petkim in 2008, the Azerbaijani state energy company has built an integrated portfolio spanning petrochemicals, refining, gas transit, logistics, storage, and power …
Read More »The illusion of redundancy: Why oil markets are misreading Gulf supply risk
Oil markets are behaving as if the region’s supply problems will soon resolve themselves. That confidence is becoming increasingly difficult to justify.By mid-September 2026, futures prices had repeatedly eased or paused on the basis of limited diplomatic signals, even as three major vulnerabilities were developing at the same time: Iran’s …
Read More »Can Saudi Arabia Finance Both War and Vision 2030?
The Kingdom Can Withstand the Current Pressure Caused by the Iran War, but Only If It Defines Its Priorities Because of the Iran war, Saudi Arabia has fewer barrels of oil to sell but receives more money for every barrel it does sell. Attacks on energy facilities and the Strait …
Read More »The gamble behind US attacks on Iran’s oil tankers
US attacks on Iranian oil tankers could make it far harder and more expensive for Tehran to keep selling its crude, but the strategy carries a potentially much larger cost: turning the Persian Gulf’s energy infrastructure into an expanding battlefield. The latest US strikes on three Iranian oil tankers mark …
Read More »The Syria Option: Rethinking Middle Eastern Oil Exports Beyond Hormuz
President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Syria as a possible alternative to the Strait of Hormuz has pushed an old energy-security problem back to the center of Middle Eastern strategy. On September 3, Trump reacted positively to a Washington Post report describing Syria’s effort to market itself as an overland corridor from …
Read More »Natural gas, corridors, and security: Why Turkey wants Egypt in the Mecca Pact
The Eastern Mediterranean’s importance is often measured by its gas discoveries, but reserves acquire strategic value only when they can reach consumers. Egypt’s Zohr, Israel’s Tamar and Leviathan, and Cyprus’s Aphrodite, Glaucus and Cronos have given the basin a substantial resource base. Yet Egypt occupies the pivotal position because its Idku …
Read More »