Importers Benefit, but Transparency Suffers, and Price Gaps Widen with the Spread of Cheap Sanctioned Oil China’s independent refiners, known as “teapots,” increasingly are replacing Venezuelan crude with Iranian oil. This shift shows how sanctions pressure, commercial reality, and geopolitics now shape global oil flows more than formal rules. As U.S. enforcement …
Read More »Gunboat diplomacy: US seeks coercion without war on Iran
President Donald Trump’s response to Iran’s recent unrest appears to reflect a strategy of gunboat diplomacy: the use of military pressure, rhetorical escalation, and economic coercion to extract concessions without committing to war or formal regime change. Iran’s currency plunge in late December 2025 sparked nationwide protests that quickly escalated …
Read More »Iran’s Gas Wealth and the Limits of Export Capacity
The Gap Between Potential and Performance Does Not Stem from Sanctions Alone Iran sits atop one of the world’s largest proven natural gas reserves, estimated at roughly 1,200 trillion cubic feet, second only to Russia. On paper, this should make Iran a major energy exporter and a consequential player in regional gas …
Read More »What will happen to US ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran after the election?
Since the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 and the “maximum pressure” strategy of reimposing crippling sanctions, Iran has abandoned its key commitments, including the resumption of uranium enrichment. These moves have been accompanied by increasing ballistic missile tests, mysterious attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, increased meddling in conflicts …
Read More »