Tehran Cannot Legally Redefine Freedom of Navigation Through International WatersIran proposes collecting tolls or fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to generate up to $40 billion annually. According to discussions among Iran, Oman, and other regional players, Tehran has suggested charging for “security, safety, and environmental services.” The Iranian …
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The United States’ new Iran sanctions waiver could do more than boost Iranian oil exports. It may also help shift Iranian energy trade from shadow networks back toward conventional global markets. On June 22, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License …
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The Company Carries Influence Since It Would Bring a U.S. Major Into a Sector That Washington Has Viewed as Off-Limits ConocoPhillips’s reported plan to sign a contract with Syria’s transitional government would be a significant step in Syria’s return to international energy markets. If finalized, this deal would make ConocoPhillips the …
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The escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has renewed attention on the energy-security vulnerabilities of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The conflict has affected maritime confidence around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most …
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The most consequential conflicts are no longer fought over land, but over the networks that bind the world together and over who gets to use them, and on what terms In the aftermath of the Iran war, global power dynamics would shift decisively from territorial control to the management of …
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Iran’s hydrocarbon sector, which holds the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves and second-largest natural gas reserves, remains structurally significant to global energy markets. However, it is increasingly constrained by domestic macroeconomic pressures and external trade frictions. As of early 2026, rapid currency depreciation, persistently high inflation, recurring gas shortages, and episodic …
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Helium Is Vital to Semiconductor Manufacturing, Aerospace Industries, and Medical Infrastructure Such as MRI Scanners An overlooked consequence of the U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran is the shock to global helium trade. While headlines have focused on oil price spikes and liquefied natural gas disruptions, helium extracted as a byproduct of …
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A soft closure of the Strait of Hormuz can inflict much of the same damage as a declared blockade The February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iran have turned a regional military confrontation into a global market shock. The conflict has begun to reprice energy, shipping, insurance, aviation, and financial risk. For global …
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The Regime May Still Hold the Center, but Holding the Center Is Not the Same as Maintaining State Capacity The February 28, 2026, U.S. and Israeli air strikes have not yet ended the Islamic Republic, but they have weakened the Iranian state’s ability to govern. State failure does not begin …
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The Gap Between Potential and Performance Does Not Stem from Sanctions Alone Iran sits atop one of the world’s largest proven natural gas reserves, estimated at roughly 1,200 trillion cubic feet, second only to Russia. On paper, this should make Iran a major energy exporter and a consequential player in regional gas …
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