Iran’s oil minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned Sunday, leaving acting minister Hamid Bovard with crude exports choked by a US blockade and scrutiny of intermediaries used to sell sanctioned oil, raising questions over what he can change. President Masoud Pezeshkian accepted Paknejad’s resignation on October 4 and appointed Bovard, chief executive …
Read More »Can the Caspian give Iran a way around Hormuz?
With war disrupting Iran’s southern trade routes, Tehran is looking north to the Caspian for alternatives. But the available evidence suggests they cannot replace its crucial oil exports. More cargo moving across the Caspian could help Iran keep supplies coming in. But rising freight totals do not show whether Tehran …
Read More »Iran faces postwar winter with a third of gas capacity lost
Iran is racing to restore gas infrastructure before winter after losing about a third of its pre-war production capacity, a reconstruction challenge that could force Tehran into difficult choices between keeping homes warm, power plants running and industry supplied. Iranian officials say attacks have knocked out about 230 million cubic …
Read More »Is the United Arab Emirates’ Iran Trade Freeze Economic Shock or Strategic Pivot?
Enforcement Will Test Abu Dhabi’s Appetite to Absorb Domestic Costs While Pressuring Tehran On August 19, 2026, the United Arab Emirates announced it had stopped “all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions” with Iran “until further notice.” But the Foreign Ministry did not cite a new statute, cabinet resolution, sanctions list or …
Read More »Can Iran Really Impose Tolls on Strait of Hormuz Passage?
Tehran Cannot Legally Redefine Freedom of Navigation Through International WatersIran proposes collecting tolls or fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to generate up to $40 billion annually. According to discussions among Iran, Oman, and other regional players, Tehran has suggested charging for “security, safety, and environmental services.” The Iranian …
Read More »US sanctions waiver could bring Iran’s oil trade out of the shadows
The United States’ new Iran sanctions waiver could do more than boost Iranian oil exports. It may also help shift Iranian energy trade from shadow networks back toward conventional global markets. On June 22, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License …
Read More »ConocoPhillips and the Remaking of Syria’s Energy Industry
The Company Carries Influence Since It Would Bring a U.S. Major Into a Sector That Washington Has Viewed as Off-Limits ConocoPhillips’s reported plan to sign a contract with Syria’s transitional government would be a significant step in Syria’s return to international energy markets. If finalized, this deal would make ConocoPhillips the …
Read More »How Iran-Israel-U.S. Tensions May Reshape the GCC’s Energy Transition
The escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has renewed attention on the energy-security vulnerabilities of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The conflict has affected maritime confidence around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most …
Read More »Chokepoints and control: Iran war and the new geopolitics of connectivity
The most consequential conflicts are no longer fought over land, but over the networks that bind the world together and over who gets to use them, and on what terms In the aftermath of the Iran war, global power dynamics would shift decisively from territorial control to the management of …
Read More »Iran’s Energy Sector Facing Structural Economic Strain
Iran’s hydrocarbon sector, which holds the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves and second-largest natural gas reserves, remains structurally significant to global energy markets. However, it is increasingly constrained by domestic macroeconomic pressures and external trade frictions. As of early 2026, rapid currency depreciation, persistently high inflation, recurring gas shortages, and episodic …
Read More »